06.30.08 Bookmarking Some Articles

Ran across some fascinating articles over the weekend that I want to bookmark here for future reference. They are bearish in nature. I admit that is an easier argument for me to buy into. These are definitely opinions that you will not be hearing much from in the MSM or on your favorite financial tv channel. But you should.
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...The first is actually a blog named The Market Ticker, by Karl Denninger. I had never heard of this blog or Mr. Denninger until this weekend, but this article posted 6/29 on his blog is compelling. If you think the worst is over in the markets, please do yourself a favor and read this article. He has a lot to say about oil, the Fed, bonds, housing, all of it looks well reasoned to me. He also details his six month scorecard from his beginning of the year predictions, and that is impressive as well. I also found it interesting that Mr. Denninger is not a gold bug as so many other bears are. In fact, he expects the metals to get pounded. I agree.
...Mr. Denninger also notes that a third major financial institution, all outside of the U.S., not coincidentally, has warned of an impending stock market crash. His conclusion? The credit crunch is not over; it is not contained; and it cannot be contained!
...And talk about disclaimers. I followed a link to a forum on his site. It is blunt, brutal, honest, not for the faint of heart or for those with delicate dispositions. But it is good advice for traders. Don't read if you are offended by strong language.
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...The second is an article with the stark headline 'Stock Market Crash Alert'. This article is posted on the Spirit of Truth website. This article is extremely detailed. There is a lot of outstanding technical data presented from several viewpoints, including Dow Theory and Elliott Wave, along with other indicators. I'm bookmarking the article for further study because the detail and data presented are so compelling. I'm reserving judgment on the website as a whole until I can check them out further. I'm not sure what spirit they are talking about at this point. They quote the Bible on the site, but also seem to be into astrology at the same time. I am not sure what to make of the site at this point. But that article is outstanding and a must read, imo.
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I consider, at this point, both of these articles to be important. They both present an almost overwhelming amount of data points that I am still digesting. They also are a nice contrast to the cheerleaders on tv who are always trying to figure out what we should be buying now, as opposed to ever asking the question, should we be buying anything at all? Much of their analysis seems to be cheerleading on the one hand, and ridicule and namecalling of bears on the other hand. But one should remember that they are working for multinational corporations and that their shows are sponsored by other multinationals and big houses. They are only doing their job, same as many other salespeople.
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JUNE 2008 RESULTS AND OUTLOOK

Note: I'm closing the books out a day early on these model portfolios, since it is all just for fun anyway. I may not be able to get back to it Monday night/Tuesday morning, and if I don't, then it becomes much more difficult to go back and reconstruct the numbers to see where they were at the close 6/30. Doing it on the weekend, when I sometimes have a little more time, is more convenient, so I'm doing it that way this time. That said, let's get to the year-to-date numbers through the end of June, henceforth known as the June 29 close.
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Model Portfolios year-to-date numbers:
NoTouch Portfolio: +2.0%.
OOP Portfolio: -0.8%.
Dividend Portfolio: +10.0%.
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All the model portfolios continue to compare very favorably to the market averages:
Dow: -14.5%.
S&P 500: -12.9%.
Nasdaq: -12.7%.
Wilshire 5000: -11.7%.
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There were no changes made to any of the model portfolios during the month. Following are six month checkup notes on the model portfolios. For more complete details regarding each portfolio, please review the January 2008 blog entries.
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NoTouch Portfolio:
Here's the mix of the funds that make up this port:
ACTIX 10%
PEMDX 10%
PSAFX 15%
TGLDX 5%
UMESX 5%
ICENX 10%
OAKBX 30%
OAKGX 15%
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UMESX has been the outstanding performer so far, both in percentage and in actual dollars, even though it comprises only 5% of the asset mix. It focuses on natural resource stocks and they have had a bang up first half. The worst performer has been OAKGX, which is down 11% on the year. My all-time stalwart favorite OAKBX is up 2% so far.
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OOP Portfolio:
OAKBX 33.3%
OAKGX 33.3%
PSAFX 33.3%
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This port has also been hurt by OAKGX, Oakmark's global stock fund. PSAFX is up 7% on the year, which has helped keep this portfolio around breakeven. This port has never returned less than 8% going back through 2000, so it is going to have to make up a lot of ground quickly to keep that streak intact, and frankly, I do not expect that to happen. The only previous year since 2000 when both OAKBX and OAKGX had negative returns, PSAFX did 29% that year to rescue the mix. I still like this mix for its diversification using only three funds, the potential for gain, and the ability to sleep at night.
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Dividend Portfolio:
At a 10% return so far this year, the Dividend Portfolio has been a pleasant surprise. It will be interesting to see what it does over the last half of the year. I suspect it will be under considerably more pressure, as several of these high yield stocks are in the energy/resource sectors and are likely to get hit as we move forward. The best performer has been HGT, which is up an incredible 60% this year. The worst has been ACAS, which is down a miserable 24%. I eliminated ACAS several months ago from my real life portfolio and removed them from my watch list, so that I wouldn't be further tempted by their terrific dividend yields.
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It was another solid month in my real life accounts, although I did lighten up some more. I'm now over 30% in cash and I do not recall the last time that happened. I dumped the RIO, which I should have done earlier, as mentioned in last month's update. I also got rid of GLW, my only tech stock. I currently have four small trading positions open in the trading portfolio: BHP, SDS, SRS and TWM. You can see from that bizarre mix how I feel about this market, but I'm also ready to drop any of those bearish positions quickly. New short term highs in the markets would take me out of alll those short ETFs. I have a broader stop under BHP. I still like it going forward, as long as the powers that be are able to keep things together.
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OUTLOOK:
The oil/resource wars continue between the countries that consume the resources versus the ones that produce them. I expect that will be a continuing theme as we stumble into the last days before the return of Jesus Christ. The end time Biblical scenarios are shaping up and the players are taking the stage, though not many people seem to notice.
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It is no coincidence that oil is of such importance in these days, and that the majority of oil is controlled by Islamic nations and others who would enjoy seeing us toppled.
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Our profligate policies here in the U.S. have made us increasingly vulnerable to threats from some of the folks who hate us the most, but at the same time control the resources we need and also finance our deficits. It is not a pretty picture, and given the lack of leadership in Washington and the continued outlook for that, does not look likely to change in our favor any time soon. I sincerely hope that I am wrong regarding all of this.
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The markets are in serious trouble, as most anyone with a 401k plan or IRA can attest. Buy and hold will become a discredited scenario in the years ahead, imo, as helpless shareholders watch their retirement savings dwindle. The trillions currently in those accounts will likely be largely confiscated (Losses are confiscation, imo - someone is gaining from the losses in those accounts.) one way or another, directly or indirectly, by government action/inaction, and ruthless funds and trading houses. That much money always attracts the sharks. The love of money is a root of all evil. Be careful out there.
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As always, this page is just for fun (Hasn't this been fun?) and is not intended as advice. You own your own decisions. If you feel you cannot make those decisions, then you should get professional help. Until next time. :)
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