Sunday, April 03, 2005

Fairy Tales, Talking Heads, Poison Pens, Etc

Free advice...
Questions that I've had from time to time when watching TV financial shows. I enjoy the interviews, I enjoy hearing the opinions and the stock picks, and I even investigate some of them. But I wonder...
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What is their motive?
Why would they give me this stock pick for free? Are they giving out these same picks to the clients who actually pay them for their counsel?
Are they being honest? Are they saying what they really think, or are they putting the information out there to bring in buyers for a stock they really want to sell?
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There was a famous trader a few years ago, I don't know if he is still out there or not, who accumulated quite a following during the bubble days of the late 90's. He was making millions, they said, and lots of people were only too glad to pay for his picks and pans. Then the authorities started after him for frontrunning trades.
They accused him of taking his position in a trade, then posting his opinion to his minions, who would all pile into the trade. This worked quite well for him, the accusers pointed out, but often not as well to those who went in after him. It worked especially well on thinly traded issues, where it didn't take much volume to make impressive moves.
What did the authorities expect him to do? Was he supposed to put his opinion out to the world, then wait for everyone else to get in before he entered? Or not get in at all, just be an information source? If he was supposed to wait, what would be an acceptable period of time?
What is the difference between what he did and what the institutional houses do every day?
Ask yourself the next time you see a broker salesman from one of the big houses on your favorite financial program:
Do you think it is reasonable to assume that his bosses already know what he is going to say and what recommendations he is going to make before he goes on the program? Or do you think that they are sitting around the TV just like you are, and asking each other, "Gee, I wonder what Bob is going to talk about today."
If you agree that it is likely his bosses already know, do you think that it is possible that they have already taken their positions in the stock that Bob is going to mention? If so, is it also possible that they have already put their PAYING clients into the position ahead of time as well before they give you this valuable free information?
And if that is the case, then what is the motive for sharing that information with TV nation? Is it to make their position increase in value? Or to bring sellers into a stock that they want to sell? Or are they just offering a public service, giving you the same information for free that clients pay them thousands of dollars for?
In this new age of disclosure, don't you just love it when the salesman recommends a stock, then says he and his firm don't have a position in it? I always want the interviewer to ask, "Why not?"
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1 Comments:

Blogger ccl7 said...

...A thought regarding the possibility of yesterday, 4/4, being a key reversal day for the oil stocks...Remember last week's sensation when Goldman Sachs opined a spike in crude oil to $105 a barrel? At that time Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International, in a comment on MarketWatch.com in the article Fears Propel Energy Futures, Kerr theorized that maybe Goldman's trading position in oil was the basis for their comments on the commodity, and not fundamental analysis. It was possible their trading position was in danger. "That may be more the motivation of this story and account for the timing of it as the oil prices were correcting a bit."
...Then could that mean that the extremely high volumes on the oil stocks I follow yesterday were caused by DaBoyz using higher prices to distribute shares to folks who believe the oil spike pronouncement? Maybe time will tell.

5:09 AM PDT  

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