2005 Wrap

...My Marketocracy account, established 1/28/05, returned 20.1% through the end of the year. I was overloaded in energy related stocks most of the year, and still am. Unless everything tanks, I still regard weaknesses in commodity related stocks as temporary. Things really are different this time. The emergence of China and India as 21st century powers changes the energy demand structure for the foreseeable future, IMO. As I've said before, China is hosting the 2008 Olympics and they will want to impress the world. I disregard all the frequent reports about Chinese demand slowing down. They've all been wrong to this point and I think will continue to be. When I think of China hosting the 2008 Olympics, I think of Germany hosting the 1936 Olympics and trying to make it a showcase to display their superiority.
...I ended the year at #148 in the ClearStation rankings. I don't know how many people there are on the site who make picks, but one of ClearStation's core pickers, Kensey is listed at #1436, so I know there are at least that many. I view ClearStation as a game. Because of the 20 minute delay before any picks are public, anyone who cares to could make the top 40 in short order. I try not to do that. To make it big there quick, all you have to do is watch CNBC or some other program in the morning, find out what the big movers are, then buy or sell them before the market opens. If they gap the way you intended, you make big bucks. If they don't, you sell them before 20 minutes into the trading day, and it is like you never made the trade. I wish my broker would let me do that in real life. I'd be richer than Warren Buffett.
...Took a look at the No Touch Portfolio I mentioned a few weeks ago. Since the beginning of 2004, just using share prices and not including any dividends, and not accounting for the share price reductions which occur when capital gains and short term gains knock the prices down, just using the share prices as reflected in Yahoo Finance, the account is up 16.5% since the beginning of 2004. So, actually if you took into account dividends and the reinvestment of the distributed gains, it would likely be quite a bit better than that.
...All the above are paper money. I use them for entertainment and as learning tools. In real life, I run four accounts. Two of them fared better than the Marketocracy account listed above, and two worse. I also use different methods in those accounts, always working on the game. And there is a lot of room for improvement, in fact a huge amount. I still look back at moves I have made in the past and shake my head. Thank the Lord for His protection.
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