Portfolio Updates 10.14.07

Marketocracy
...Here's a link to my Marketocracy account public page. Marketocracy allows you to simulate running an actual mutual fund, even deducting fictional management fees and expenses from the results. It has been a valuable tool for me and opened my eyes to several weaknesses in my real-life trading. As of this writing, since opening the account in January 2005, my fund is up 64% overall, and has a 20.1% annualized return.
...I'm overweighted in energy and natural resource stocks. If the market bulls are correct, and I still don't think they are, then to me the energy and natural resource stocks have to do well overall - even though they are subject to sometimes violent corrections. There is increasing demand for decreasing resources, a classic economic setup, especially with China and India trying to become main players on the world stage.
...If the market bulls are wrong, and I still think they are, then those stocks will get crushed along with everything else, but that is a story for another day. I have learned to trade what I see, not what I think, as much as that is possible for me. The market is not interested in my opinion. It is going to do what it is going to do. And as we have seen since summer, the Fed and the powers that be are going to do anything and everything they can to hold it all together.
...But just because they have succeeded to this point does not mean that they will always be able to do so. One theme of my blogs is that we are living in the last generation before the return of Jesus Christ. And there are going to be some major life changing events preceding His return.
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NoTouch Portfolio
...The set-it-and-forget-it NoTouch Portfolio is up 13.9% year-to-date. It is doing its job overall. The fund has a tendency to underperform in good markets and to outperform in bad markets. It has mixed results right now compared to:
.....S&P 500: 10.1%
.....Dow Jones Industrials: 13.1%
.....Nasdaq: 16.2%
.....Wilshire 5000: 10.7%
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Something to keep an eye on:
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Banks May Pool Billions to Avert Securities Sell-Off. Several of the world's largest banks, at the behest of the U.S. Treasury Department, are considering forming fund for emergency purposes to hold things together.
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