01.03.08 15:50 Mutual Fund Portfolio Trade Update

Closing out the TGLDX trade at the close today. Still like it, but with over 4% yesterday and another nice move in gold today, going to lock in an estimated 6-8% gain in 2 days. Also hearing talk of $1000 gold on CNBC today and that is usually a good indicator it is getting ready to get hit. In any event, taking the gain off the table.
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Will enter UOPIX at the close today. Likely just another 1-2 day trade. Nasdaq down 5 days in a row and a bounce is likely. The first 4 days of the month are historically the market's best days, and two of them are out of the way with disappointing results for the bulls.
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01/03/08 15:47

01.02.08 Port Updates for the New Year

No Touch Portfolio:
...The No Touch returned 12.7% in 2007, a nice return when compared to the market averages. The portfolio was designed several years ago for some friends as a 'set it and forget it' fund. It has done its job, never posting a losing year, and generally outperforming the market averages.
...For the year 2008, I am going to make changes in it for the first time. I am dropping BBHIX. As mentioned in the previous day's post, I see BBHIX now lists a $100,000 minimum, much too rich for our purposes here. When I actually used BBHIX a few years ago, I do not remember what the minimum was, but I know it wasn't $100,000. I am replacing it with ACITX. It is pretty much the same thing, government inflation indexed bonds for the most part. ACITX will make up 10% of our allocated money in this portfolio. BBHIX had been at 15%.
...The 5% that is coming out of the inflation indexed bonds will go into PSAFX, raising it's percentage of the portfolio from 10% to 15%.
...TGLDX, the gold fund, will be cut from 10% to 5% of the portfolio. It has been a stellar performer for the past couple of years and I do not see why that should change. But since there is significant gold exposure in PSAFX and USEMX, decided to cut the percentage of TGLDX.
...USEMX is being added to get more exposure to natural resources. If the powers that be are successful in keeping things together, then I still think that natural resource and energy stocks have to do well. The 5% addition of USEMX to the portfolio comes at the expense of TGLDX, which is being cut from 10% to 5%.
...That makes the mix as follows:
ACITX 10%
PEMDX 10%
PSAFX 15%
TGLDX 5%
UMESX 5%
ICENX 10%
OAKBX 30%
OAKGX 15%
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We'll start the new year with a portfolio allocation of $10,000, divided among the funds according to their percentages and based on the 12/31/07 closing prices for each. Dividends will be reinvested into new shares as they are received during the year.
...1/1/08 starting mix for the No Touch Portfolio:
ACITX 88.96797 shares at $11.24 per share = $1000
PEMDX 93.63296 shares at $10.68 = $1000
PSAFX 115.9196 shares at $12.94 = $1500
TGLDX 10.23751 shares at $48.84 = $500
UMESX 19.66182 shares at $25.43 = $500
ICENX 29.72652 shares at $33.64 = $1000
OAKBX 111.6071 shares at $26.88 = $3000
OAKGX 62.24066 shares at $24.10 = $1500
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...The plan is to keep the portfolio intact through the year and see how it does, since it is designed to be set up and then left alone.
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OOPs Portfolio:
...The OOPs Portfolio returned 10.5% in 2007. It is composed of equal parts PSAFX, OAKBX, and OAKGX. Resetting it for the new year with $10,000 as follows, split between the three funds:
PSAFX 257.5997 shares at $12.94 = $3333.34
OAKBX 124.0078 shares at $26.88 = $3333.33
OAKGX 138.3124 shares at $24.10 = $3333.33
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Divvy Portfolio:
...For 2008, am setting up a model dividend portfolio. It will also start with $10,000, equally divided among 10 stocks/etfs. I reserve the right to do some adjustments in this portfolio as we go through the year. I have used several of these stocks in my own investing, and in fact have a couple of them now, but some of them make me uncomfortable, particularly the ones related to finance and real estate. But I wanted to start out this portfolio with some kind of mix other than the energy and resource stocks that I prefer. I may change it, as I have a strong preference for energy stocks and especially the oil and gas royalty trusts when I am looking for income. Anyway, here's the starting mix, shares and prices based on 12/31/07 close:
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ACAS - 30.33981 shares at $32.96 each. Financial stock, invest mostly in middle market companies. This one was a long term holding for me in real life investing. They have a DRIP program where you can reinvest the dividends and get a 2% discount on the shares. (It used to be 5%.) I sold it when it got caught up in the financial stock meltdown several months ago. I still keep an eye on it, though, and will likely get back in at some point. DRIPs can add up more than you would think over the years, and I hated getting out of this one.
ENB - 24.73411 shares at $40.43 each. Energy, mainly oil/gas pipelines.
HGT - 44.58315 shares at $22.43 each. Energy, oil/gas royalty trust, parent co is XTO. XTO, my all-time favorite stock, has spun off shares of CRT and HGT over the years to shareholders.
MIC - 24.67308 shares at $40.53 each. Infrastructure.
NRP - 30.80715 shares at $32.46 each. Coal trust.
PCL - 21.72024 shares at 46.04 each. Timber and real estate. Another long time favorite. Besides controlling millions of acres of timber, they have a lot of high value real estate, too.
PCU - 9.512033 shares at $105.13 each. Copper.
PGF - 50.55612 shares at $19.78 each. Finance ETF; preferred stock of financial companies.
PLD - 15.77785 shares at $63.38 each. REIT commercial distribution properties.
PWE - 38.46154 shares at $26.00 each. Canadian oil/gas royalty trust. A personal favorite, though it has fallen on some rough times. I still have this one, though. Those monthly royalty payments help ride out the storms.
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Obviously, in real life, we wouldn't buy these fractional shares. Doing it that way here to start the port at an even $10,000.
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Mutual Fund Trading Portfolio:
...This will be a fund that also starts with $10,000. It will invest everything into the fund on each trade. I had success with this in the past, but haven't used it for several years and want to take another look at it. Obviously, in real life you would not want to go all in on any one trade, but you can sometimes make significantly larger single trades when you are balanced elsewhere.
...The first trade will be in TGLDX. Going in for the entire $10,000, 204.7502 shares at $48.84, based on the 12/31/07 closing price. I do these trades based on weekly charts, and use a combination of price, moving averages, MACD and stochastics. In this case, the slow stochastics is coming up out of oversold.
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Trend Trade Portfolio:
...Setting it up with $10,000. Will use a watchlist for trade ideas. The idea is basically to look for trades, either long or short, when a stock hits a new 20 day high or low, and then stay in it until either stopped out on the initial stop price, or when it hits a new 10 day high or low, or when I need the funds in the trade for another trade I like better. Trend trades have a much lower percentage of wins than other shorter term trading, but it has been the best for me over the years. I never liked the frenetic pace of day trading and wasn't any good at it anyway. Trend trades are subject to whipsaws and a lot of losses, and waiting out a 10 day low can be stomach wrenching, but this is where my biggest gains have come over the years.
...No trades to start the year. I want to get past the first few trading days of the year.
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01.01.08 Updates and Outlooks

NO TOUCH PORTFOLIO FINAL NUMBERS AS OF 12.31.07: 12.7%
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That compares to:
Dow: 6.4%
S&P 500: 3.5%
Nasdaq Composite: 9.8%
Wilshire 5000: 3.9%
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The No Touch, from its beginning, has been composed of: OAKBX 30%; OAKGX 15%; BBHIX 15%; PEMDX 10%; PSAFX 10%; TGLDX 10%; ICENX 10%. It has never had a losing year, and overall has outperformed the market averages nicely. It is designed to be 'set it and forget it'. It tends to outperform the markets in bad times and to underperform the markets in bullish environments.
...For this coming year, I'm planning on making some changes to it. I notice that BBHIX now is listed as having a $100,000 minimum. I haven't used that fund for a few years in my real life investing, but when I was in it, I assure you the minimum wasn't $100,000. It was probably more like $2500. So I'll have to replace it with something more realistic. This portfolio was designed for a $10,000 initial cash investment.
...I came up with the No Touch Portfolio a few years ago for some friends. I never did use it, but sometimes when I look at the results, I wish I would have. It has performed very well over the years and without all the headaches of active management.
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OOPs PORTFOLIO YEAR END RESULTS: 10.5%.
...The OOPs is composed of equal parts OAKBX, OAKGX and PSAFX. It also has never had a losing year and has generally outperformed the market averages. Counting back from 2001, it's worst year was 2001 at 8.4% return. The best year was 2006, with a 37% return. Overall it has averaged 14.4% return. Those results are based on dollar cost averaging into the funds on a monthly basis. These are the three mutual funds I have used overall in my own investing, along with ICENX and regular stock trading and stock investing.
...The three funds have complemented each other very well over the years. For example, OAKBX and OAKGX both had one down year, but PSAFX was up 29% in that year so the overall account return was still over 8%.
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GUESSES FOR THE COMING YEAR:
...Might as well, everybody else does it. I still believe the markets are in serious trouble. When the central banks inject a half trillion dollars of liquidity into the system, they do not do that because they are nice guys. They have demonstrated in recent months, again, that they will do everything in their power to keep things going. So far they have, and I hope that continues. I still believe that one day will come when they will not, however, intentionally or not, and I believe that all fits in with the end time scenarios covered in more detail in my other blogs.
...The beast system that will be in existence in the last days is different than all that preceded it. I haven't written too much on this, but increasingly, I think that the difference is that all previous beast systems were single empires that ruled the world in their times: i.e., the Babylonians, the Medes-Persians, the Greeks, the Roman Empire. In these last days there is a configuration that is different. Today nations, including increasingly our own, owe their allegiance to multinational corporations and banks, and rule at the permission of their masters. Those multinational corporations do not owe their allegiance to any particular nation. An executive of GM, for example, was noted in the book One World Ready Or Not to have made the comment that GM was not an American company anymore. They were a multinational company that happened to be located in the U.S.
...I expect the economy to have serious troubles in the coming year. Consumers are increasingly tapped out. It is becoming harder to refinance mortgages. Home prices are going down. Delinquencies are rising on auto loans and credit cards, both indicators of households becoming increasingly strapped. I haven't seen signs of cutbacks in consumer spending based on the traffic in our area and the parking lots at restaurants and malls, but I suspect it is mostly because people have not yet faced reality, and many won't, as long as they are able to put it on their charge cards and have enough resources to make the payments. But that is going to get more difficult.
...The first wave of baby boomers is also getting ready to pull the plug. They may not like what they see in the markets. As people get more cautious and get concerned about paying down their debts and putting some cash aside, that does not bode well for a consumer driven economy.
...Bottom line, I expect another year of volatility in the markets. There should be good trading opportunities for those so inclined. But it behooves one to keep an eye on the big guys. The powers that be will do all that they can to protect the big houses. If you see the big boyz looking for an exit door, take note.