01.01.08 Updates and Outlooks

NO TOUCH PORTFOLIO FINAL NUMBERS AS OF 12.31.07: 12.7%
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That compares to:
Dow: 6.4%
S&P 500: 3.5%
Nasdaq Composite: 9.8%
Wilshire 5000: 3.9%
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The No Touch, from its beginning, has been composed of: OAKBX 30%; OAKGX 15%; BBHIX 15%; PEMDX 10%; PSAFX 10%; TGLDX 10%; ICENX 10%. It has never had a losing year, and overall has outperformed the market averages nicely. It is designed to be 'set it and forget it'. It tends to outperform the markets in bad times and to underperform the markets in bullish environments.
...For this coming year, I'm planning on making some changes to it. I notice that BBHIX now is listed as having a $100,000 minimum. I haven't used that fund for a few years in my real life investing, but when I was in it, I assure you the minimum wasn't $100,000. It was probably more like $2500. So I'll have to replace it with something more realistic. This portfolio was designed for a $10,000 initial cash investment.
...I came up with the No Touch Portfolio a few years ago for some friends. I never did use it, but sometimes when I look at the results, I wish I would have. It has performed very well over the years and without all the headaches of active management.
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OOPs PORTFOLIO YEAR END RESULTS: 10.5%.
...The OOPs is composed of equal parts OAKBX, OAKGX and PSAFX. It also has never had a losing year and has generally outperformed the market averages. Counting back from 2001, it's worst year was 2001 at 8.4% return. The best year was 2006, with a 37% return. Overall it has averaged 14.4% return. Those results are based on dollar cost averaging into the funds on a monthly basis. These are the three mutual funds I have used overall in my own investing, along with ICENX and regular stock trading and stock investing.
...The three funds have complemented each other very well over the years. For example, OAKBX and OAKGX both had one down year, but PSAFX was up 29% in that year so the overall account return was still over 8%.
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GUESSES FOR THE COMING YEAR:
...Might as well, everybody else does it. I still believe the markets are in serious trouble. When the central banks inject a half trillion dollars of liquidity into the system, they do not do that because they are nice guys. They have demonstrated in recent months, again, that they will do everything in their power to keep things going. So far they have, and I hope that continues. I still believe that one day will come when they will not, however, intentionally or not, and I believe that all fits in with the end time scenarios covered in more detail in my other blogs.
...The beast system that will be in existence in the last days is different than all that preceded it. I haven't written too much on this, but increasingly, I think that the difference is that all previous beast systems were single empires that ruled the world in their times: i.e., the Babylonians, the Medes-Persians, the Greeks, the Roman Empire. In these last days there is a configuration that is different. Today nations, including increasingly our own, owe their allegiance to multinational corporations and banks, and rule at the permission of their masters. Those multinational corporations do not owe their allegiance to any particular nation. An executive of GM, for example, was noted in the book One World Ready Or Not to have made the comment that GM was not an American company anymore. They were a multinational company that happened to be located in the U.S.
...I expect the economy to have serious troubles in the coming year. Consumers are increasingly tapped out. It is becoming harder to refinance mortgages. Home prices are going down. Delinquencies are rising on auto loans and credit cards, both indicators of households becoming increasingly strapped. I haven't seen signs of cutbacks in consumer spending based on the traffic in our area and the parking lots at restaurants and malls, but I suspect it is mostly because people have not yet faced reality, and many won't, as long as they are able to put it on their charge cards and have enough resources to make the payments. But that is going to get more difficult.
...The first wave of baby boomers is also getting ready to pull the plug. They may not like what they see in the markets. As people get more cautious and get concerned about paying down their debts and putting some cash aside, that does not bode well for a consumer driven economy.
...Bottom line, I expect another year of volatility in the markets. There should be good trading opportunities for those so inclined. But it behooves one to keep an eye on the big guys. The powers that be will do all that they can to protect the big houses. If you see the big boyz looking for an exit door, take note.