10.10.07 No Touch Portfolio Update

NO TOUCH PORTFOLIO
...As of the close of this week's disastrous week in the markets, the No Touch port is doing what it was designed to do. Year-to-date the port stands at 13.5% return. That compares well to the market averages of:
Dow 30 Industrials: 4.7%
S&P 500: 2.5%
Nasdaq Composite: 8.8%
Wilshire 5000: 3.2%
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...The No Touch is designed to be 'set it and forget it'. It tends to underperform the averages in good markets, and outperform them in bad markets. It has never had a losing year since its inception, or even before, when backtesting results are included. See previous posts for its composition.
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O O P PORTFOLIO
...The newer OOP Port, consisting of equal parts OAKBX, OAKGX, and PSAFX, stands at 10.6% YTD. Backtesting shows this mix has never had a losing year yet, either. OAKBX has only had one negative year since its beginning. As I recall, that was also a bad year for OAKGX and the markets in general, but PSAFX came through that year with a 29% gain.
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...I expect both ports to be tested severely in the months ahead. This market is in trouble. There seems to be a growing fear among the big boys, a sense that it may finally be unraveling. The $100 billion bailout fund set up for the banks was more than a hint to anyone paying attention. Not to mention that it was followed in short order by the sudden resignations of the CEOs of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup.
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...I'm not much on technical indicators anymore. I used to following TA closely. I still look at charts every day, and probably always will, but I am not a believer in TA anymore. The charts are too easily manipulated by people with deep pockets, fast computers, and ulterior motivations. I look mainly now to see when short, medium and long term tops and bottoms have been established, and the accompanying volumes. I still use a few of the TA indicators with the charts, but only as secondary or timing indicators.
...At the same time, it is worth noting that both the Dow and the S&P 500 have fallen below their 200 day moving averages, and on above normal volume.