4/21 Post Market Notes

...The bulls finally made a move today, though how much of it was short covering remains to be seen. The market is not out of the woods yet, even with today's action. The bulls are chortling, happy days are here again. But now we'll have to see whether this rally has legs. They need a follow through day at the least.
...Volume was much better today, although the NYSE volume still outpaced the Nasdaq volume.
...And the new high vs new low numbers still were decidedly unimpressive. NYSE: 23 new highs, 66 new lows; Nasdaq: only 28 new highs vs 105 new lows.
...And Nasdaq volume came in lower than the volume on yesterday's decline.
...S&P: DaBoyz parked the S&P at 1159.95, just below the 200 day EMA of 1160.47. Serious resistance for the S&P lies just ahead at 1163. That number was a battleground congestion range in November, January and March. If the bulls can clear that hurdle, they still will need to clear 1192, the last intermediate term high, to re-establish a bull trend. They have a lot of work to do.
...Nasdaq: I think the bulls got a lot of help today from shorts covering their positions. The gap down last week trapped late arriving shorts. When DaBoyz put the pedal to the metal this morning and closed the gap, the shorts were falling all over themselves covering and helping to rocket the prices higher. The Nasdaq's strong price action helped push the 50 day EMA slightly back over the 200 day EMA, but the index is still a long way below both. Next resistance is in the 1970-1975 range for the Nasdaq, and serious resistance at 2000. Then there's the two EMAs at 2006-2007, and the last intermediate term high at 2019 to clear, so there's a lot of work left to do there as well.
...XOI: Oil had another nice day today, and has now been up three of the past four days. XOI closed above its 50 day EMA today. Normally I would get back on board here, but as shaky as the markets have been lately, I prefer to see the index clear the serious resistance at 850, much less the last intermediate high of 873. I still believe we are in a long term bull market in oil, and there is plenty of time to get back on board.
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...I closed out both trades I was in today, and also put on a daytrade in the QQQQs today, something that I don't do often, as daytrades on the long side have been the worst part of my trading. As of the close, I'm in cash in the short term port. I'm building a watchlist for short term trade possibilities, depending on how tomorrow shakes out, but I'm still not comfortable committing to anything more than swing trades in this environment. There is still plenty of time to get in on longer term moves, in my opinion, if this bull move is for real. I still have my doubts that it is.
...I'm looking for the market to start strong in the morning. Then after the counter reaction move, will see how it plays out from there. If the bulls can hold on, I'll likely enter a trade using the 4/21 low as the stop. If the bulls can't make the rally hold, I'll have a short trade ready to go, using either the 4/21 or 4/22 high as a stop, whichever is lower. I don't plan on doing anything for the first half hour, just watching. Likely only one trade either way tomorrow, though. I'm not ready to make any serious committments in this manic market. The volatility is increasing and I think that hedge funds are jerking us back and forth. I also am of the opinion that the MM's juiced the market this morning to cause the gap and make the shorts cover, so I need more convincing before believing this move is for real.
...Unless I find something more compelling, I'll likely use one of the indexes, probably the QQQQs to enter the swing trade. If it's on the short side, I'll probably go heavier since the trend is still down until proven otherwise. I still like AAPL on the long side, though I cashed it in today, not wanting to hold it overnight. APPB looks like a potential short trade.
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...For those keeping score, the VTO 5 day RSI trade closed out today for a .4% gain, bring its year-to-date gain to 2.9%, vs -10.7% for the Nasdaq 100. I didn't play it this time. Once again, that is an excellent website. The graphic displays of the sentiment indicators on the site are great information. http://www.vtoreport.com
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