4/8 Pre-Market Notes

Links:
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/RudeAwake/Articles/RA040805.html
Fighting The Tape of Eric J. Fry. Discusses current oil markets, mostly with Kevin Kerr of Resource Trader Alert, in lieu of Goldman Sach's call last week for up to $105 oil spike. Excellent insight, worthwhile article. Kerr likes oil longer term but feels the current oil market is due for a correction, not a spike.
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That article is contained on The Daily Reckoning website. That site is required daily reading for me, not only for the subject matter it contains, but the writing quality is exceptional.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
...Today's issue has another excellent article on the energy market by Dan Denning.
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Today's FT.com Financial Times Online also has a good energy related article:
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a3b6a0c2-a792-11d9-9744-00000e2511c8.html
IMF Warns On Risk Of 'Permanent Oil Shock'.
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FNM: This stock has enjoyed a good week, and a much needed respite from its recent relentless downtrend. This week's positive action has come in spite of it being featured in the news the past couple of weeks even more than usual. I'm starting to look for another chance to get short on this one.
...This stock has been one of my two biggest trading disappointments of the year. I shorted this early in the year at 64.58, but then because of setting my stops too tight and being too worried about trying to win every day instead of trying to let trades develop, I allowed myself to be stopped out (for a loss!) only to watch the stock turn around and do what I thought it would. It actually bottom at 49.75 in April.
...That trade was one of the ones that sent me back to the drawing board to re-evaluate what I was doing. Trading is a tough business, and I have a tendency sometimes to get away from my system, and to fall into bad habits. I am competitive by nature when it comes to trading, and I don't like to lose. So I have a tendency to be too aggressive and to over-trade. Those tendencies will get you hurt in this business. They may be ok for daytraders, but daytrading doesn't work for me.
...I recommend making copies of the charts of all your trades, both when you buy and sell, for later review. To me it is like a football coach reviewing game films. I also keep all my trades logged on Excel spreadsheets. When I am in a time of retrospection and re-evaluating the system, it gives me an objective look at how my longs and shorts are doing, what time frames are working for me; in short, what is working and what is not.
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...Seriously considering shorting XTO today. It is being sold off harder than its group for whatever reason. If I do, will set the stop just above yesterday's high of 35.64, with the expectation that this looks like it could fall at least to 32.50.
...Looking at AAPL, ISRG, TEVA long, and SBUX and MNST as possible shorts for today's watchlist, in addition to my core watchlist, depending on how it goes. Also might go long QQQQ or SPY for a while if we go up. Supports look to be firming, and it is appearing that the intermediate term lows might have been set eight sessions ago.
...Happy trading all.