2006 No Touch Portfolio setup
...I'm posting the No Touch Portfolio out here to keep track of during the coming year. I think 2006 is going to go down as a very challenging year in the markets for a variety of reasons, some of which I list here from time to time if you have read the past entries, and some I don't. It will be interesting to see how the No Touch Portfolio does vs the market averages during the coming year.
...No Touch Portfolio. Let's start it all over for 2006, based on the closing prices 12/31/05. Here's the funds and the percentages, using $10,000.
OAKBX 30% of port, $3000, closing price $24.98 per share, 120.0961 shares.
OAKGX 15%, $1500, closing price $23.47, 63.91138 shares.
BBHIX 15%, $1500, closing price $10.68, 140.4494 shares.
PEMDX 10%, $1000, $11.16, 89.60573 shares.
PSAFX 10%, $1000, $11.57, 86.43042 shares.
TGLDX 10%, $1000, $40.80, 24.5098 shares.
ICENX 10%, $1000, $31.95, 31.2989 shares.
...We'll match them against the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. Those closed the year at:
Dow 10717.50
S&P 1248.29
Nasdaq 2205.32
...Once again, I don't use the No Touch Portfolio in real life. So I'm not going to put a lot of time into modifying it. I did check it out when creating it in late 2003. Just from looking at it, I would probably make a couple of changes, but it was designed to be left alone, and has performed satisfactorily to this point. One change I'd consider would be to reduce PEMDX, PSAFX and TGLDX by half, put one third of the extra cash produced by those moves into ICENX, and then trade the rest as follows: When the S&P is trading above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, buy a growth fund. When it is trading below its 50 and 200 day moving averages buy a bear fund (BEARX, URPIX, SOPIX, etc.). When the market is trading at any level other than the two just mentioned, keep the extra funds as cash. I suspect, without checking, that those changes might beat the No Touch Portfolio and still not need much monitoring or trading. But then again, the beauty of the No Touch is that it was designed to file it and forget it.
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...I also plan on putting a couple of model trading portfolios here and updating them throughout the year if I have the time.
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