March 2008 Portfolio Updates

March was a rough one, no doubt about that. It was also marked by some dramatic, open interventions from the PTB (powers that be) and the PPT (plunge protection team). It wasn't too long ago that a lot of folks were still denying that there was even such thing as the PPT. No more. No more free markets, either, if there ever was such a thing. The PTB are now openly trying to hold the markets together. I wouldn't be surprised to see a continuing rally from here for a while, but the die has been cast. If there was ever any doubt as to whether the markets are in trouble, the manic actions by the PTB have settled the issue.
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Anyway, on to the numbers. The numbers are disappointing, but at the same time, all the ports are still handily beating the overall market averages through March. Year to date numbers follow:
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NoTouch Portfolio: -0.5%
OOPs Portfolio: -0.3%
Dividend Portfolio: +0.1%.
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vs the market indexes:
Dow Jones Industrials: -4.9%
S&P 500: -6.7%
Nasdaq Composite: -10.6%
Wilshire 5000: -6.7%
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My real life accounts are still doing better than the model portfolios, since I am still overweighted in commodities and natural resource stocks. There were some breathtaking drops this month, and I gave back about half of my gains for the year this month. That is never pleasant, but I still don't see anything that convinces me that the story has changed. I did start to wonder a couple of times this month, though, and I did lighten up and increase my cash position. When it comes time for the big plunge, commodities will likely go down the drain with everything else.
...But until that day, I still maintain, as I have for the past couple of years, that the permabulls cannot have it both ways. They hate commodities and natural resource stocks. There is a never ending line of 'experts' coming on CNBC every week it seems to pronounce the 'bubble' in commodities. Those same folks never seem to see a bubble in other stocks. But we should keep in mind that they are salespeople - and a lot of the shills who come on the programs all day have a vested interest in getting people to buy what they are selling.
...But, if everything is going to be okay and the bottom is in, which is what I keep hearing, then commodities and resource stocks should continue to do well, imo. Asia is rising. China, in particular, is determined to become the world's super power. The rise of the Asian countries puts a permanent strain on demand for a limited supply of natural resources.
...Also, commodities may have become a sort of currency these days. Our own government seems determined to destroy the dollar, for reasons probably only they know. As the dollar's destruction continues, then commodities also tend to move up correspondingly.
...In their ignorance (at least I hope it is just stupidity and not something else), our elected officials even seem to think we have the advantage over those poor saps who finance our debt by buying over $2 billion a DAY of our increasingly depreciated currency. After all, the thinking seems to go, we have them over a barrel. If they were to ever quit buying our debt, it would crash their economies, too.
...But, alas, there are signs that some of the other players on the world stage are growing more reluctant to play the game. Some of them are diversifying into other currencies. Recent Treasury auctions have gotten disappointing results. A London newspaper a few weeks ago ran a story about panic in our markets - and it wasn't about the Bear Stearns collapse - it was about our Treasury auctions failing. And what if one of our enemies who happens to hold a major portion of our debt and who wants to become the world's superpower, decided it would be acceptable to crash everything, and then emerge from the rubble a few years from now as the world's only superpower - all without having to fire a shot?
...Consumers are increasingly tapped out. People are walking away from their homes because they are upside down on their mortgages. Joblessness is increasing. Late payments and delinquencies are increasing on debts across the board, not just mortgages. We have record deficits, record off the balance sheet debt obligations, a war that is sapping billions that could be spent here, and leaders who don't seem to care at all about the middle class families in this nation - except in election years. They talk about democracy and free trade while they take away rights in this country, manipulate markets, and send jobs overseas.
...In short, rallies should be viewed as opportunities to cash out and/or get short.
...Last, but certainly not least, there is reason to believe that we have entered, or are right at the edge of, the final seven year period before the return of Jesus Christ. More on that in my other blogs.